Atlanta Constitution column-July 7, 2005

On the G-8 agenda in Scotland is how the developed world should deal with the massive poverty in
Africa.  Debt forgiveness is high on the list. 

 

Simultaneously, musical artists have been holding concerts to encourage that something be done in
Africa.  Why should so many starve when so many others have so much, they say?

 

Atlanta Constitution column-June 30, 2005

An old joke talks about two hunters who can hear the lion prowling outside the light of their camp fire.  One quickly changes to track shoes.  The other says, “you cannot outrun a lion.”  The newly shod fellow replies, “no, but I can outrun you.”

 

Unless something changes very rapidly, the United States will run a $150 billion trade deficit with
China this year.  As startling as it seems, Japan’s trade deficit is only a tenth of that amount while their sales to
China are nearing three times ours.  Why can we not outsell Japan in
China?

 

Atlanta Constitution column-June 23, 2005

This past week, the central banks of
Sweden and Hungry cut their interest rates.  Two members of the nine member board of the Bank of England also voted to cut their rates.  Rumors that the European Central Bank also is contemplating a rate reduction abound.  And a prominent bond investment manager has suggested that rate increases will shift to rate cuts before Alan Greenspan steps down early next year. 

 

Atlanta Constitution column-June 16, 2005

The good news is that inflation vanished in May according to both the producers’ and consumers’ price indices.  The bad news is that the good news already is over. 

 

Atlanta Constitution column-June 8, 2005

As far as I can fathom, there are three explanations for the apparent “conundrum” that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan continues to address. 

 

The conundrum is that yields on ten year government bonds are lower today than they were when the Federal Reserve began raising their interest rate targets from 1 percent about a year ago.  Normally, such as in 1994, the initial increase in short term rates leads to higher long term rates as well.  Some rise in long term rates initially happened but then rates settled back to less than 4 percent yields. 

 

Atlanta Constitution column-June 1, 2005

What does the vote against the constitution of the European Union mean to
Europe and to the rest of the world?

 

Atlanta Constitution column-May 18, 2005

In a real estate seminar in January, I stated that housing price increases reflected underlying conditions of reduced costs to finance homes.  For example, about 47 percent of all households nationwide could afford the median home selling nationwide for $190,000. 

 

Atlanta Constitution column-May 11, 2005

 A good economic forecaster needs to tell a story that makes sense.  We do not need to be Brothers Grimm or even Mark Twain, but we must be believable and consistent with economic theory. 

 

Of the two recent stories about oil prices, Goldman’s prediction of price spikes to more than $100 per barrel is possible, but Merrill’s over $50 for as far as the eye can see is not.  However, my story is different from either of those. 

 

Atlanta Constitution column-May 5, 2005

An old adage on Wall Street is three rate increases and you’re out.  If the Federal Reserve shifts toward restraint, stock values cannot perform well.  Three rate increases clearly reflect a policy shift.  Therefore, look out for the next bear market when the Federal Reserve restrains money growth. 

 

Atlanta Constitution column-May 4, 2005

When I wrote last week’s column to make publication for the early weekend editions, President Bush had not yet made his Saturday radio address.  In that address, Bush outlined a program that would substantially reduce the imbalance between promises and funding in the social security system.