Atlanta Constitution column-October 28, 2004

Are we economists collectively whistling in the dark?

After a year of strong economic growth marred only by a slight slowing last spring, most forecasts assume only modest retrenchment in the next year.  Almost without exception, I see forecasts assuming that employment growth will maintain the 1.5 million annual rate of the past year and that consumption will continue to grow almost 4 percent after adjustment for minimal inflation (other than in energy). 

Atlanta Constitution column-October 21, 2004

When the Nobel laureates in economics for this year were announced, I immediately thought this would be another year when I did not know who the recipients were and what they did.  Until two years ago, I was aware of some work by each economics Nobel laureate that had been picked since the prize began in 1969.

Atlanta Constitution column-October 14, 2004

What this Congress has done to respond to a developing economic problem in corporate taxation is beyond reason. 

Atlanta Constitution column-October 7, 2004

Normally, a survey of top executives about the economy should receive little attention from economists.  After all, forecasters spend their lives analyzing conditions while CEOs are, or ought to be, focused on their company’s strategies and resource management. 

 

However, some of the expectations by people in the trenches should be heeded by the big picture forecasters.